2019

Risk sentiment improved after China cuts rate, long USD/JPY?

Antipodean currencies continue to weaken despite an improvement in risk sentiments as the slowdown in both Australia and New Zealand becomes evident through data.

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With RBNZ likely to cut rates tomorrow to 0.75% alongside RBZ’s current interest rates, NZD could remain dovish.

President Trump said last Friday that he has not agreed to scrap tariffs on Chinese goods which dampened global outlook. Safe-haven currencies could strengthen.

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With the backdrop of political chaos, slowdown in global economic growth and the delay in Brexit, some of the policymakers may vote for an immediate rate cut. GBP/AUD may continue its downtrend.

With no further rate cuts by RBA this year and an improvement in risk sentiment, Aussie dollar could rise higher until the end of 2019.

Despite a tentative deal to defer a set of tariff hikes in October, the December tariffs remain on the table. Gold, with its safe haven status, can still rise higher.

With Bank of Canada (BoC) cutting domestic and global growth forecast, we can expect further profit-taking from long Canadian dollar trades. USD/CAD could rise further.