The October labour market report, revealing signs of a decelerating labour sector, carries potential to impact the Federal Reserve's stance on monetary policy. The recent data release is amplifying the prospects of forthcoming rate reductions in the coming year, spurred by aspects such as the unanticipated shortfall in job creation, notable downward revisions, and an uptick in unemployment. This cumulation of factors has collectively tilted the likelihood of further tightening by the Fed towards an exceedingly unlikely scenario.
In response to the release of a subdued labour market report, the equity market surged on Friday. This upward momentum in stocks emerged as a complementary reaction to the concomitant dip in bond yields. Ultimately, this delivered a conclusive seal on what has evolved into the most favourable trading week of 2023.
The October labour market statistics for the United States unveil a palpable slowdown in job creation. The Labor Department's report outlines an addition of 150,000 nonfarm payrolls, which fell short of the consensus forecast that had been poised at 170,000. It is pivotal to note that the recent labour strikes led by the United Auto Workers have exerted a discernible influence on this slowdown, resulting in a net decline in jobs within the manufacturing sector.
In parallel, average hourly earnings, a pivotal gauge for inflationary pressures, underwent a modest 0.2% increment throughout the month. This metric slightly underperformed against the projected 0.3% uptick. Of considerable importance, the Federal Reserve has been meticulously monitoring wage-related data in alignment with its ongoing assessment of inflation. It's worth noting, however, that the Fed has refrained from implementing interest rate hikes in its recent meetings, notwithstanding the elevation of inflation beyond its 2% target threshold.
In the aftermath of the labour market data's public release, the market-implied probability of an impending rate hike in December diminished substantially to a mere 10%, according to assessments derived from a CME Group index. Even before the disclosure of this employment data, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, during a speech delivered earlier in the week, indicated that the labour market might not be operating at the same blistering pace that prior hiring figures had seemingly suggested.
Furthermore, the unemployment rate exhibited an upward trajectory, exceeding the 3.8% level that Federal Reserve officials had projected as of September, signifying the close of the fiscal year. This shift in dynamics implies a recalibration of the Fed's focus - transitioning from deliberations over whether to execute rate hikes to more contemplative considerations of when and how rate cuts could be introduced in the following year.
Another prominent facet in the financial landscape, the bond market, responded emphatically to the labour market data, particularly the lacklustre payrolls figures and a rather subdued increase in average hourly earnings. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield registered a decline exceeding 9 basis points, settling at 4.57% after surmounting the 5% threshold just a month ago. In tandem, the 2-year Treasury yield experienced a decline of 13 basis points, relinquishing ground to 4.8%.
Fullerton Markets Research Team
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