The numbers for US jobless claims are expected to spike higher due to coronavirus-induced layoffs. This may kill the current rally in the US stock market. Short SPX/USD?

  • US stock index futures rose in the past 2 days as a result of Fed’s promise to offer unlimited support and the USD2 trillion fiscal stimulus package which was agreed by the White House and Senate.
  • The question now is: Can the fiscal stimulus package prevent a recession and soften the blow by the current COVID-19 pandemic?
  • US jobless claims will be released tonight, with estimates ranging from 1 million to 4 million. Even at 1 million, this figure would be a 3-time increase from last week’s number.
  • Here’s a projection by different banks on tonight’s numbers.
    US Jobless Claims
  • Moreover, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard has warned that the US unemployment rate could climb to 30 percent this year, a grim assessment of an economy that had seen the percentage of unemployed Americans fell to a half-century low just one month ago.

  • In our opinion, in order for US stock futures to have a sustainable recovery, either the number of cases in US must peak or a vaccine that is ready to be shipped must be available.
  • During a Fox News virtual town hall, President Trump said he was considering lifting some of the restrictions by Easter, which lands on April 12th this year.
  • We feel that it may be too early and could cause devastating consequences if Trump decides to ease coronavirus restrictions prematurely.
  • S&P 500 is currently holding at the Fibonacci 23.6 retracement which acts as a resistance. The jobless claims tonight could push price lower towards 2365 price level.
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Fullerton Markets Research Team

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