With ADP employment change doubling and jobless claims falling, we could expect a healthy NFP data though the gains should be modest. Short EUR/USD?

  • Most signs point towards a healthier NFP tonight as ADP employment change doubled while jobless claims continue to fall.
  • The only concern is that the labour component of Non-Manufacturing ISM fell to a 4-month low in January.
  • The recent rally in dollar despite the coronavirus outbreak could mean that market sentiment could take precedence instead of data.
  • We believe that dollar’s rally could continue as long as the US stock market continues to move higher.
  • Thus, we are bullish on dollar movement and even a slightly weaker NFP could provide a better short entry opportunity for EUR/USD.
  • However, we do not expect huge movement even if NFP surpasses market expectations by a huge mile.
  • EUR/USD recently broke a critical support at the 1.0990 price level and could head lower towards its next support at 1.0940.

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Fullerton Markets Research Team

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