With the trade deal in peril after Trump said he liked the idea of waiting until after elections for the China deal, global trade risks will continue to rise into 2020. Long gold?

  • US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday ahead of meeting the NATO leaders that he had no timeline for reaching a deal with China.
  • This came after the US and China are so close to signing a “phase one” deal that was supposed to remove the tariffs that would be implemented on 15 December.
  • Fox News went on to say that according to their sources, 15% tariffs will be imposed on USD$160 billion worth of Chinese goods on 15 December.
  • As if the global trade sentiment has not already worsened, Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Brazil and Argentina and threatened 100% duties on French goods that include champagne, cheese and handbags.
  • Trump also said that the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act he signed last week will hamper the chances of securing a trade deal with China.
  • It will be a gloomy future in the short term leading up to 15 December when the market waits to see if tariffs will be imposed.
  • With the prospect of a trade deal looking more remote, flows into safe havens will increase until early 2020.
  • Gold may move higher towards 1498 before hitting a strong resistance.

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Fullerton Markets Research Team

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